Campaign Overview

From 25th September 2025 to 5pm 10th October 2025

Catherine Connolly remains highly visible on radio and is winning the local head-to-head: across qualifying county markets (n≥20), she leads Heather Humphreys in every county, with the tightest contests in Dublin (+6.3 pp) and Limerick (+5.9 pp) and larger cushions in Waterford (+16.6), Tipperary (+14.0) and Galway (+12.5). Her footprint is still local-anchored (68.9% Local / 31.1% National), which means frequent name-checks across the map rather than reliance on a handful of national shows. On tone, she posts the most favourable net balance (+2.3 pp) this period, helped by constructive coverage on policy and community-focused items, while still navigating pockets of tougher scrutiny in some current-affairs slots. In short: breadth, regularity and a slight tone edge underpin her position, even as daily leaderboard shifts grab headlines elsewhere.

What’s driving that profile? Positive clusters include Industrial School Advocacy (+100 pp, small but emphatic), Housing (+71 pp) and the Presidential Nomination (+46.7 pp), which travel well on both national and county current-affairs. Negative clusters—notably German Military Remarks (−93.9 pp), the Syria Trip (−90.5 pp) and Hiring (−41.8 pp)—flare in caller-driven segments but haven’t overridden her overall balance. At the programme level, the battlegrounds are tight (≤5 pp) on high-reach shows such as Morning Ireland, The Last Word, North West Today, LMFM, The Neil Prendeville Show and Cork’s Red FM—venues where a single strong segment can swing perception. Taken together, Connolly’s campaign is being talked about widely, in many places, with a slight positive tilt. For the live picture—share of voice, county leads and programme hotspots—check the Battle of the Airwaves tracker, which updates as new clips land.