Campaign Overview

From 25th September 2025 to 5pm 10th October 2025

Heather Humphreys maintains a solid radio presence with 22.6% of total mentions, and the local airwaves are her engine—about 73.3% of her coverage comes from county stations. That footprint delivers reliable visibility across core markets, with her clearest local strength in Cavan (the only county where she holds a mention lead in this window). In the Connolly–Humphreys head-to-head, Connolly leads in every qualifying county (n≥20), but the closest contests—Dublin and Limerick—remain within single-digit margins, underscoring how fast sentiment or agenda shifts can move perception at county level. National talk acts as a stabiliser; locals drive most of the day-to-day swings.

On tone, Humphreys sits slightly negative overall (−1.3 pp), but the mix is format- and topic-dependent. Positive/near-neutral clusters come from Border Poll Unity (n=21; +81 pp) and comparative items linked to Gavin’s withdrawal, as well as routine local delivery stories that land close to neutral at scale. Negative clusters—notably the Shane O’Farrell case (n=15; −100 pp), the Occupied Territories Bill (n=37; −21.6 pp) and some Housing coverage—tend to intensify on caller-driven county programmes. Programme-level battlegrounds (≤5 pp gaps, n≥20) include Morning Ireland, The Last Word, North West Today, LMFM, The Neil Prendeville Show and Cork’s Red FM—slots where a single strong segment can flip the read-out. Net-net: Humphreys is consistently present, locally weighted, and close to parity in several key venues; the path to a cleaner balance runs through topic selection and high-reach battleground shows where small swings matter most.