Campaign Overview

From 25th September 2025 to 5pm 10th October 2025

Jim Gavin is the dominant voice on air this period, accounting for 50.1% of all radio mentions (2,013 of 4,021). Coverage climbs through the first week of October, peaks on 9 Oct (301 mentions), and includes a partial 10 Oct day (33 mentions to 17:00). The narrative is shaped by the withdrawal announcement on 5 Oct, which triggered a two-wave pattern: national talk framed the story as process/ballot mechanics (more neutral), while county current-affairs and phone-ins pushed sharper scrutiny as callers and panels weighed in. Overall tone remains negative, with neutral national hits unable to fully offset the volume of critical items that followed.

What’s driving that tone? The largest trend is Fianna Fáil Leadership (n=875; net −68.7 pp), with the Rent Scandal also carrying a heavy negative balance (n=145; −77.2 pp). Ballot Presence items—explaining the mechanics of withdrawing yet staying on the ballot—are moderately negative (n=208; −20.7 pp) and mainly live on national shows where framing is straighter. The one consistent bright spot is Gaelic Football Legacy (n=51; +25.5 pp), which provides a small positive buffer but not at the scale needed to move the daily balance. Outlet patterns mirror the formats: national talk (RTÉ/Today FM/Newstalk) tends to neutralise, while local/regional belts (e.g., Cork and South-East markets, Shannonside/Northern Sound) amplify polarity when controversies lead. Net-net: Gavin’s campaign owns the volume leaderboard on radio, but the content mix skews critical, especially where caller-led debate is strong. For a live picture—daily volume, trend shares, programme hotspots and post-withdrawal shifts—check the Battle of the Airwaves tracker, which updates as new clips land.